Finding Our Balance, Facing the Moment
On the eve of a momentous election, let’s meet uncertainty with an open heart, grounded feet, and a clear vision of what may lie ahead
Compas,
We are one day away from the election, and like many of you I am feeling the anticipation and anxiety of this intense political moment. Many of us are rightly worried about what will happen and what it will mean—for us and our loved ones, our organization, our social movements, our country, and indeed our world.
Of course, the #1 thing we can do to impact the election is to VOTE and to help others to! You can find canvassing and phone banking opportunities near you via www.mobilize.us. And check in with your friends, family, neighbors, and comrades about getting out to the polls—especially those who might need a little extra support or encouragement.
I’ll talk more below about other ways to take action before, during, and after the election. But first I want to talk some about the uncertainty of this political moment, and how to find our balance within it. And I will close by sharing some thoughts about various post-election scenarios, and the possible terrain and tasks ahead.
We don’t know what will happen tomorrow
None of us know what is going to happen tomorrow. And despite the polling data, that’s not because it’s definitely going to be a close nail-biter. In fact, it’s even more uncertain than that.
While the polling consensus appears to show a very tight race, the probability of a systematic polling error (which could go in either direction) is very large.
That means that, statistically speaking, the election could end up decided by razor-thin margins, or it could be a blowout for Harris, or it could be a blowout for Trump. We might know the results by Tuesday night, or we might not know for days or weeks. Between that and the myriad different combinations depending on the outcome of other races at the Congressional and state level, the level of uncertainty about the political terrain we are about to find ourselves on is extremely high.
For what it’s worth, my own gut instinct is that the most likely scenario is a surprisingly strong win for Harris; the next most likely a narrow Harris win; and the least likely an outright Trump victory. I could tell you my grounds for that hunch. But the truth is all our gut instincts are even more prone to confirmation bias and human error than the data are. Other smart people can (and have) made compelling cases for why the available information points the opposite direction. I might be wrong, and they might be right.
Grounding in the midst of uncertainty
So the only thing we can know with any certainty is that we don’t yet know anything with any certainty. But we’re all fairly certain that the results of the upcoming election (whatever they are) will have huge, consequential impacts on the political terrain, our movements, and our lives. To quote Donald Rumsfeld, it’s a “known unknown”—we know something big’s about to happen, but we don’t know what.
That combination is really unsettling. Many of us are feeling waves of anticipation, fear, fatigue, despair, hope, anger, energy, or some combination of all these and more—both about the things that may change after tomorrow, and about those, like the ongoing genocide in Gaza, that we dread may not. I want to affirm that those feelings are a natural response to a charged political moment full of risk and uncertainty.
None of us can individually control what happens. But all of us can do things that help us stay grounded and find our balance in the midst of intense uncertainty and shifting conditions. In the coming days and weeks, I encourage us all to carve out time for practices that help us re-ground, re-group and re-center. That will look different for each of us, but it could include: time in nature or with loved ones, exercise and sleep regimens, spiritual practices, journaling or meditation, joyful or creative activity (music, dancing, games, art) or some combination of all these.
Those practices are not an alternative to collective political action. But they are a core component of our political commitment. We’ll be better able to respond to external conditions if we’re well resourced, rested, grounded, and resilient. I deeply believe we can’t change external conditions without also prioritizing our internal conditions.
Taking action before and after the election
Of course, one of the best ways of staying grounded is taking collective action. We’re in the final election-day push and helping organize our people to vote is one of the best ways to ensure we have the optimal conditions on which to organize the day after tomorrow.
Many of you reading this are already deeply involved in election-day work. But if you’re still looking for ways to plug in, mobilize.us has a pretty comprehensive list of opportunities to sign up for phone, text, or canvassing shifts. You don’t have to live in a swing states to get involved; control of Congress and the state legislatures will impact the coming political terrain almost as much as the presidency, and most people live relatively near a contested district that will impact one or more of those sites of power. Where possible, I encourage people to plug in through an independent political organization, labor union, or other grassroots community group that connects election-season outreach to longer-term base-building; Seed the Vote and Movement Voter Project have some good lists. In my own state, North Carolina, three great IPOs are hosting joint phonebanks all day every day through the election that you can join from anywhere.
Outreach to people you have relationships with can often have an even bigger impact on someone’s decision of whether or if to vote. In a high-stakes, high-salience race like the general election, many people already know how or if they’re going to vote. But most of us have at least some people in our life who might not make it to the polls without a push. This is especially true of first-time voters, young people, and people who face barriers like limited mobility, lack of transportation, or time off work. Text your people, check to see if they need rides, bring a couple with you when you vote, post to your socials about how you’re voting and why. Additionally, many of us on the socialist and social movement left know people who are contemplating abstaining or voting third-party. In deep blue (or deep red) states, it’s probably not worth trying to get your militantly anti-electoral friend to change their mind at the top of the ticket, but there are lots of really important down-ballot races you can encourage them to vote for. And for compas living in critical swing states, it might be worth having an intentional conversation about why you think this presidential election is so important.
While we don’t know yet what the outcome of the election will be, there is a high likelihood that we will need to take action—indeed, multiple actions—after the election. Some of these we can already predict, but many will be highly dependent on the course of events. The best way to be prepared is to ensure you are connected to grassroots organizations that can be prepared to act together. For mass-level mobilization at the national level, Working Families Party and Indivisible will send out updates about actions.
Post-election scenarios
Liberation Road leadership recently spent time role-playing potential post-election scenarios to explore potential developments and their impact on left strategy. Precisely because the outcome of the election is so uncertain, the range of post election scenarios is very large, and the utility of speculation limited. But in very broad strokes and vague outlines, some of my takeaways from that exercise were as follows:
In the event of a decisive Trump win, MAGA forces are likely to move quickly and aggressively on key aspects of their agenda. This will have immediate and devastating impacts, and left forces must be ready to protect trans and queer folks, immigrant communities, and others targeted for attack. However, the far right’s very aggressiveness is likely to provoke an “overextension” which will alienate some of their potential allies, turn (at present) neutral parties into opponents, and promote greater cohesion inside the pro-democracy front. There will also be internal contradictions within the MAGA front that it will be important for us to understand and attempt to take advantage of. (For instance, key sectors of capital will oppose tariffs and deportations.) Without discounting the costs, chaos, and devastation of a second Trump term, I believe these dynamics will produce real strategic openings for the left, if we are able to seize them. Really my main message under this scenario is: don’t despair, all hope is not lost.
If a Trump win would lessen contradictions inside the two fronts while intensifying the clash between them, a Harris victory will likely do the opposite. A decisive Harris win will cause consternation and increased infighting within the right-wing camp, as they grapple with the contradictions of the increasing radicalization of their coalition and its constraints on their ability to win majorities and to govern. Meanwhile, contradictions between left and centrist forces inside the pro-democracy camp would also intensify—particularly around Gaza, but potentially also on other areas of deep disagreement. As I have said elsewhere, there are three key areas around which left-progressive forces and liberal centrists are currently deeply divided: imperialism, immigration, and incarceration. We will need to prepare to struggle even more deeply on those issues.
At the same time, there are many other areas where the progressive position has largely won consensus within the Democratic Party—for instance on abortion, labor rights, and trans rights. So it will be just as crucial to figure out which areas of unity between left and center it is possible to make major advances on precisely because we are not internally divided. Much will depend on whether Democrats possess federal Congressional majorities, and by how much; at present that looks more likely in the House, but less likely in the Senate. If Democrats end up with trifecta control it will be necessary to (push them to) take advantage of that rare window to advance a bold agenda—one that includes both measures that have a direct and immediate impact on people’s lives (abortion legislation, expanded child tax credit) and measures intended to address and correct longer-term structural problems (voting rights legislation, statehood for DC and Puerto Rico, court reform). Many of the latter would require getting rid of the filibuster and challenging other “norms” to which centrists are deeply attached, so our movements will need to be prepared to push here.
If Harris wins, but the GOP controls one or both Congressional chambers, we will be in a federal stalemate. This has become a familiar scenario in recent years, as partisan polarization and the structural difficulty of securing simultaneous control of the presidency, House and Senate (much less a 60-vote supermajority) has made it increasingly difficult for either party to advance a significant agenda legislatively. In this scenario Harris would be restricted to the powers of executive action, although many of these would be struck down by the far-right Supreme Court—both sides trying to get around the impasse in the legislature by “legislating” via the executive and judiciary, essentially. In this scenario it will be paramount for the left to push for good appointments to Harris’ cabinet (a critical task in any case) and to pressure them to act boldly. But this will be a challenging scenario for the left politically, with the inability to pass legislation risking cynicism and apathy. One bright spot is that Harris looks likely to continue Biden’s pro-labor NLRB policies, perpetuating a stronger terrain for organized labor and new worker organizing.
No matter what, we know that Trump will decry any scenario where he does not win. And in the context of anything other than a huge Harris victory, there will be openings for MAGA forces to contest the results. Pro-democracy forces have had time since the 2020 coup attempt to strengthen our systems and shore up our resources; but so too the MAGA bloc has had time to prepare and plan. We should anticipate legal challenges, lies, obfuscation and—potentially—attempts to pressure local election officials, Republican governors, and the House (in the event of a GOP majority) to reject results. And in all scenarios, we can anticipate an increased risk of right-wing vigilantism, violence, and terrorism, especially between the election and the inauguration on January 20th.
Liberation Road will continue to assess these developments in coordination with our allies on the socialist and social movement left. We look forward to continuing to build with you on the changed terrain that will greet us the day after tomorrow. In the meantime, stay well, comrades; let's take care of ourselves and each other.
In solidarity,
Bennett
Bennett Carpenter (they/them) is a queer Southern organizer, trainer and movement strategist. A member of the National Executive Committee of Liberation Road, they have extensive experience in labor, community and electoral organizing.